A stochastic surplus production model in continuous time

Surplus production modelling has a long history as a method for managing data‐limited fish stocks. Recent advancements have cast surplus production models as state‐space models that separate random variability of stock dynamics from error in observed indices of biomass. We present a stochastic surplus production model in continuous time (SPiCT), which in addition to stock dynamics also models the dynamics of the fisheries. This enables error in the catch process to be reflected in the uncertainty of estimated model parameters and management quantities. Benefits of the continuous‐time state‐space model formulation include the ability to provide estimates of exploitable biomass and fishing mortality at any point in time from data sampled at arbitrary and possibly irregular intervals. We show in a simulation that the ability to analyse subannual data can increase the effective sample size and improve estimation of reference points relative to discrete‐time analysis of aggregated annual data. Finally, subannual data from five North Sea stocks are analysed with particular focus on using residual analysis to diagnose model insufficiencies and identify necessary model extensions such as robust estimation and incorporation of seasonality. We argue that including all known sources of uncertainty, propagation of that uncertainty to reference points and checking of model assumptions using residuals are critical prerequisites to rigorous fish stock management based on surplus production models.     

Efficiency of fisheries is increasing at the ecosystem level

Managing fisheries presents trade‐offs between objectives, for example yields, profits, minimizing ecosystem impact, that have to be weighed against one another. These trade‐offs are compounded by interacting species and fisheries at the ecosystem level. Weighing objectives becomes increasingly challenging when managers have to consider opposing objectives from different stakeholders. An alternative to weighing incomparable and conflicting objectives is to focus on win–wins until Pareto efficiency is achieved: a state from which it is impossible to improve with respect to any objective without regressing at least one other. We investigate the ecosystem‐level efficiency of fisheries in five large marine ecosystems (LMEs) with respect to yield and an aggregate measure of ecosystem impact using a novel calibration of size‐based ecosystem models. We estimate that fishing patterns in three LMEs (North Sea, Barents Sea and Benguela Current) are nearly efficient with respect to long‐term yield and ecosystem impact and that efficiency has improved over the last 30 years. In two LMEs (Baltic Sea and North East US Continental Shelf), fishing is inefficient and win–wins remain available. We additionally examine the efficiency of North Sea and Baltic Sea fisheries with respect to economic rent and ecosystem impact, finding both to be inefficient but steadily improving. Our results suggest the following: (i) a broad and encouraging trend towards ecosystem‐level efficiency of fisheries; (ii) that ecosystem‐scale win–wins, especially with respect to conservation and profits, may still be common; and (iii) single‐species assessment approaches may overestimate the availability of win–wins by failing to account for trade‐offs across interacting species.     

Impact of grassland contract policy on soil organic carbon losses from alpine grassland on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

Carbon storage in the soils on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau plays a very important role in the global carbon budget. In the 1990s, a policy of contracting collective grasslands to smaller units was implemented, resulting in a change from the traditional collective grassland management to two new management patterns: a multi‐household management pattern (MMP: grassland shared by several households without enclosures) and a single‐household management pattern (SMP: grassland enclosed and used by only one household). In 2016, 50 MMP and 54 SMP winter pastures on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau were sampled to assess the differences in soil organic carbon (SOC) between the two management patterns. Results showed that average SOC was significantly greater under MMP than under SMP, with an estimated 0.41 Mg C/ha/yr lost due to SMP following the new grassland contract. Based on the government's grassland policy, four grassland utilization scenarios were developed for both summer and winter pastures. We found that if the grassland were managed under SMP, likely C losses ranged between 0.31 × 10⁷ and 6.15 × 10⁷ Mg C/yr across the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau relative to MMP, which more closely resembles pre‐1990s grassland management. Previous estimates of C losses have only considered land use change (with cover change) and ignored the impacts driven by land management pattern changes (without cover change). The new data suggest that C losses from the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau are greater than previously estimated, and therefore that the grassland contract policy should be reviewed and SMP households should be encouraged to reunite into the MMP. These findings have potential implications for land management strategies not only on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau but also other grazing regions globally where such practices may exist.     

An acoustic based approach to evaluate the effect of different diet lengths on feeding behavior of Litopenaeus vannamei

Studying shrimp feeding behavior is challenging and, traditionally, studies have been using direct visual observation or video recordings with image analysis under laboratory conditions. Passive acoustics monitoring (PAM) is a non-invasive approach to study feeding behavior of penaeids, as their mandibles emit clicking sounds during feed ingestion. Considering the wide variation available in shrimp diet lengths, our knowledge is still limited about their effects on feeding behavior. The present study was designed to use acoustics to evaluate the feeding behavior of Litopenaeus vannamei fed different diet lengths. A commercial pelleted diet with similar diameter (2.4 mm) and three different lengths was used as treatments “small” (2.35 mm), “medium” (4.26 mm) and “large” (8.42 mm). Three separate trials were performed with fastened shrimp (20 g), using omnidirectional hydrophones and external audio recorders. Our approach started with the characterization of the click acoustic parameters produced by three shrimps when fed the different diet lengths in anechoic chambers (15 L). We then analyze the number of clicks produced per pellet and duration of the clicking activity when shrimp fed a single pellet in individual tanks (1 L). Finally, the acoustic energy of feeding activity and feed consumption, as well as theirs relationship to predict feed intake was evaluated in aquaria (70 L) with five shrimps. The acoustic parameters of isolated clicks were not affected by the different diet lengths, however, doubling the length of the pellet resulted in doubling the number of clicks emitted during feeding activity. The duration of clicking activity per pellet indicated that small pellets are consumed 2.9 and 4.7 times faster than medium and large pellets, respectively. Furthermore, feeding acoustic energy of small pellets decreased rapidly after feed offer, as their faster consumption probably contributed to shrimps achieved satiety earlier than larger diets. Feed consumption was similar among diets length, but significantly correlated with the feeding acoustic energy emitted by L. vannamei, which is a breakthrough in feeding behavioral research. The results highlight the potential and possibilities of an acoustic approach to estimate feed consumption, as well as an alternative to traditional methods in feeding behavioral studies to improve efficiency of feed management.     

中国工业大麻种业创新发展策略研究

工业大麻是重要的经济作物，中国是工业大麻生产和出口大国。然而，工业大麻种业发展滞后对我国工业大麻高质量发展提出严峻挑战的问题。本研究采用实地调研和文献综述的方法，分析了当前国内工业大麻种业的发展态势和存在的问题，探讨我国工业大麻种业创新发展路径。研究表明，我国工业大麻种业构建了全国行业标准和地方法律规范相结合的政策保障体系，推动了育种创新主体由公益性科研院所向企业转变，创建了以多用途为特色的育种技术体系，形成了良种区域化的种植格局和技术服务体系，奠定了该产业创新发展的基础。但缺乏国家层面或跨区域协同的工业大麻法规体系、育种繁种技术资源分散和低效率共存、面临国外种业知识产权布局先发优势挑战、商业化育种体系不完善等问题成为主要障碍。因此，提出了加快完善政策保障体系、培育多元育种体系、打造生产经营体系、构建国际合作体系，以期提升工业大麻种业创新发展能力。     

单倍体育种技术在玉米种质创新上的应用与实践

本文从单倍体育种的特点和优势出发,阐述了单倍体育种技术在国内外的发展现状及其在玉米种质创新上的应用方向,提出在张掖市利用单倍体育种进行玉米种质改良的独特优势,为今后开展单倍体育种、加快玉米种质创新提供参考。     

美国德克萨斯州高地平原区地下水灌溉管理方法研究

德克萨斯州高地平原区是美国灌溉和旱地作物的生产基地,其灌溉水源主要来源于奥加拉拉(Ogallala)地下水含水层。然而,自从1950年灌溉农业发展以来,由于对奥加拉拉含水层地下水的过度开采,使得区域地下水位严重下降,有些地区地下水位下降超过50 m。为了保护地下水资源和实现地下水可持续利用,2000年以来美国德克萨斯州高平原地区在节水压采方面开展了一系列工作,取得了较好的成效。采取的主要措施包括:用德克萨斯州高地平原蒸腾蒸发网络(The Texas High Plains Evapotranspiration Network, TXHPET)进行灌溉及地下水管理,改变作物品种,改进灌溉技术,改变种植结构,保护性耕作方法,加强降雨管理,将小部分灌溉农田转为旱作农田等。该区域1958年的灌溉面积为183万hm~2,1974年灌溉面积达到峰值,为242万hm~2;1989年灌溉面积降为159万hm~2,由于喷灌技术的推广应用,2000年灌溉面积恢复到187万hm~2。1958年大多数灌区为地面灌溉,仅有11%的灌溉面积为喷灌。1974年之后,灌溉总面积在减少,主要灌溉方式转为喷灌,中心支轴式喷灌面积稳步增长。自1989年之后,喷灌在该区域快速发展,2000年喷灌面积已占该区域灌溉面积的72%。早期的喷灌系统在较高压力下运行,自20世纪80年代,低压喷灌系统已全面使用。我国华北地区长期超量开采地下水与美国德克萨斯州高原区地下水超采情况及问题相似。兹系统介绍了美国德克萨斯州高地平原区在地下水超采情况下采取的综合措施拟为我国地下水超采地区的地下水管理工作提供技术与经验参考。     

Improving wood volume predictions in dry tropical forest in the semi-arid Brazil

The volumetric variability of dry tropical forests in Brazil and the scarcity of studies on the subject show the need for the development of techniques that make it possible to obtain adequate and accurate wood volume estimates. In this study, we analyzed a database of thinning trees from a forest management plan in the Contendas de Sincorá National Forest, southwestern Bahia State, Brazil. The data set included a total of 300 trees with a trunk diameter ranging from 5 to 52 cm. Adjustments, validation and statistical selection of four volumetric models were performed. Due to the difference in height values for the same diameter and the low correlation between both variables, we do not suggest models which only use the diameter at breast height (DBH) variable as a predictor because they accommodate the largest estimation errors. In comparing the best single entry model (Hohenald-Krenn) with the Spurr model (best fit model), it is noted that the exclusion of height as a predictor causes the values of 136.44 and 0.93 for Akaike information criterion (AIC) and adjusted determination coefficient (R2 adj), which are poorer than the second best model (Schumacher-Hall). Regarding the minimum sample size, errors in estimation (root mean square error (RMSE) and bias) of the best model decrease as the sample size increases, especially when a larger number of trees with DBH≥15.0 cm are randomly sampled. Stratified sampling by diameter class produces smaller volume prediction errors than random sampling, especially when considering all trees. In summary, the Spurr and Schumacher-Hall models perform better. These models suggest that the total variance explained in the estimates is not less than 95%, producing reliable forecasts of the total volume with shell. Our estimates indicate that the bias around the average is not greater than 7%. Our results support the decision to use regression methods to build models and estimate their parameters, seeking stratification strategies in diameter classes for the sample trees. Volume estimates with valid confidence intervals can be obtained using the Spurr model for the studied dry forest. Stratified sampling of the data set for model adjustment and selection is necessary, since we find significant results with mean error square root values and bias of up to 70% of the total database.     

我国饲草重大病虫鼠害研究进展

为全面了解我国饲草重大病虫鼠害分布和危害，充分掌握其传播扩散规律及其造成的重大经济损失，我们系统分析了我国饲草病害、虫害、鼠害等生物灾害危害情况，总结了国内外饲草病虫鼠害防控现状与研究进展，提出了饲草重大生物灾害的防控对策，为保障饲草产业和草牧业健康发展提供理论支撑。此外，本文还总结了我国饲草病虫鼠害的防控难题，为今后饲草病虫鼠害的研究提供了方向。     

多效唑对杂交中稻不同密肥群体产量和抗倒伏性的影响

为探究高产稻田中防止倒伏发生的早期诊断技术,2015-2016年,以大面积推广的杂交中稻高产新品种蓉18优1015为试验材料,设计3因素完全因子试验,研究不同密肥群体下喷施多效唑对稻谷产量和抗倒伏性的影响。结果表明,随着施氮量和移栽密度的增加,稻谷产量提高,植株抗倒力下降,以施氮量150 kg·hm^-2和移栽密度18.75 万穴·hm^-2的产量较高。不同密肥群体下施用多效唑对产量和植株抗倒伏性有显著影响,施用多效唑后植株抗倒力增强,但产量因穗粒数下降而减少。不同密肥处理下施用多效唑对产量影响各异。于水稻最高苗期施用多效唑使植株重心高度、弯曲力矩、倒伏指数显著降低,折断弯矩则明显提高,穗粒数平均减少5.24~7.87粒。多效唑对产量的影响表现为低施氮量下因穗粒数减少而减产;中施氮量下产量差异不显著;高施氮量下植株未倒伏、籽粒灌浆结实正常,因结实率和千粒重高而增产。综上所述,肥力水平和施氮量高的稻田于最高苗期施用多效唑有利于水稻产量提高和控制后期倒伏。本研究为指导大面积水稻高产稳产提供了科学依据。